I’m a little concerned about my brother’s state of mind these days. He’s convinced that our way of life is doomed to a collapse which will leave innocent people in danger of starving while they spend every waking moment trying to ward off hungry bands of desperados determined to rape and pillage. He’s convinced that this is all going to happen quite soon, not just in the lifetime of his children, but in his own time- possibly in just a few years. I sympathize with his plight because I was going through the same torment a relatively short time ago.

It all began with a visit to a website call LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net, created by Matt Savinar, which began with this startling paragraph:

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global “Peak Oil.”

Peak Oil refers to a theory advanced by the geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert that a natural resource like oil follows a bell-shaped production curve over time. When it reaches its peak and begins a downward trend the price and availability of this resource gets out of hand quickly. In a much shorter time than required for the upward curve, the resource becomes extremely scarce and its continued production becomes prohibitively expensive. Hubbert had calculated in 1956 that American oil production would peak in 1970 and he was dead on in this prediction. He also said that world-wide production would peak in the late 90s, failing to take into account the adjustments to the consumption rate occurring with the oil shocks of the 70s. These effects, and other more recent shocks like the Middle Eastern wars, should delay the peak by at best a couple of decades. In other words, we’ll probably reach the peak within a decade, give or take a few years. Some think we’re already there.

What does this mean? It means the era of cheap oil is almost over. We can expect prices of gasoline and petroleum-based products to go through the roof over the course of the next decade if not the next few years. If it was just the price of gas it would be bad enough, but cheap oil is what our entire technological infrastructure is based on. Without it we can’t generate power, heat our homes, move products and food to where people need them, or even grow the food we do now to feed the ever increasing numbers of humans on the planet (oil based pesticides are an essential part of the green revolution). What about the alternatives? The outlook is grim. Solar, wind, nuclear and biofuels can at best provide a very small fraction of what oil gives us- even with significant advances to be expected in these fields. Coal is abundant but potentially catastrophic to an environment already faced with a major crisis in the form of global warming. In short, humans have taken advantage of a readily available resource that will virtually disappear within a few decades and produced a colossal population boom. What happens to a species that gobbles up everything in the petrie dish? It begins to die off quickly.

When I read all of this I was in a panic. It couldn’t be true could it? I asked wise friends for help rebutting this madness. No one could provide a satisfactory counter-argument. Most of the arguments came down to pie in the sky hopes for magical solutions that were based on denial of the evidence. Panic was followed by rage. How could our leaders be so stupid and short sighted? But then I realized it’s not just the current leadership. It’s the natural tendency of humanity to take advantage of what nature gives us. We found a way to tap into hundreds of millions of years of energy accumulation and exploit it. Of course it was going to happen. Rage was followed by despair. I have no significantly valuable post peak skills. I’m not a farmer, nor am I a hunter. I work in high tech. Without computers and an ever present stream of electricity required to operate them my ability to build software is pretty useless. What would become of my family? Worst of all, what would the future hold for my nine year old son? What senseless wars would he be forced to fight in to try and hold on to the last of the diminishing resources trapped in the sands of foreign hostile powers?

But it couldn’t last. I couldn’t go on as an emotional cripple paralyzed by my fears- while doing a damn good job of bumming out my family. Here I, a natural optimist, was faced with the need to integrate the awareness of a terrible reality. Kind of like being informed of a terminal illness. What to do, what to do?

The final phase for me- or at least the present one- is acceptance, but not resignation. Having a pretty good idea that the current style of modern civilization is in for some major changes, I’ve taken to cherishing that which I really enjoy about modern mankind’s achievements. The ability to stay in close contact with friends and family spread far and wide geographically through (usually) crystal clear communications networks, the occasional chance to visit directly through airplane flights, the ability to see amazing foreign countries and prime vacation spots. To be able to leave work near the ocean and be skiing in the mountains the following day. And the technology! We can immerse ourselves in the greatest range of high fidelity music ever available on earth. I’ve gone a little gadget crazy lately, with my 40GB iPod, my 17″ Apple Powerbook, a new midi keyboard controller, a GPS. And I’m using all of it. I’m getting the most out of all of these things because I have a new-found appreciation for how amazing they are- and how unlikely, really. It’s only due to the extraordinary bounty of fossil fuels that any of this has become possible.

But if playing with high tech toys was my only pursuit as the world began to fall to pieces I wouldn’t think much of myself. I’d just have a boatload of guilt to go along with the residual panic, rage, fear & despair. The question I had to ask myself was, what can I really do to make things better? That is, to improve my and my family’s chances of a happy future and to do my small part to help humanity? I’m starting slowly. I bought a Prius (another high tech toy) and now get a great lift out of cracking the 50MPG barrier on a given trip. I’m educating myself on a variety of subjects that could prove useful in a post-peak world; basics of building shelter, fostering community- through things like this blog and just generally being more sociable, making music, being a vegetarian… I promise I’ll get to gardening soon- that one’s tough for some reason. I’m dabbling with progressive politics, though I haven’t gone much beyond small contributions and lurking at Daily Kos. Mostly I’m reading what others who have peak oil awareness and seem to have integrated this awareness are writing. People like Richard Heinberg with Powerdown, Thom Hartmann with The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight, Jared Diamond’s Collapse, even reading the infamously “doom and gloom” James Howard Kunstler with his irreverent blog every Monday morning. I feel that the faster the awareness of peak oil is spread, the faster people will get through the paralyzed stage and become part of the solution to whatever degree solutions can be found. I’m even enjoying imagining a new reality in which we don’t have this potentially devastating transition in front of us, where life is fresh, energetic, creative and sustainable. Something beyond dog eat dog and whoever dies with the most toys wins. That blessed state may not arrive in my lifetime, but maybe my son and the children of friends and family can begin to see the benefits, or their children. The important thing is to start getting there.

Hope this helps, bro’.

Cross posted to Daily Kos